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Deep classifiers are known to rely on spurious features — patterns which are correlated with the target on the training data but not inherently relevant to the learning problem, such as the image backgrounds when classifying the foregrounds. In this paper we evaluate the amount of information about the core (non-spurious) features that can be decoded from the representations learned by standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) and specialized group robustness training. Following recent work on Deep Feature Reweighting (DFR), we evaluate the feature representations by re-training the last layer of the model on a held-out set where the spurious correlation is broken. On multiple vision and NLP problems, we show that the features learned by simple ERM are highly competitive with the features learned by specialized group robustness methods targeted at reducing the effect of spurious correlations. Moreover, we show that the quality of learned feature representations is greatly affected by the design decisions beyond the training method, such as the model architecture and pre-training strategy. On the other hand, we find that strong regularization is not necessary for learning high-quality feature representations. Finally, using insights from our analysis, we significantly improve upon the best results reported in the literature on the popular Waterbirds, CelebA hair color prediction and WILDS-FMOW problems, achieving 97\%, 92\% and 50\% worst-group accuracies, respectively. 

Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance parameter. By contrast, for Bayesian classification we use a categorical distribution with no mechanism to represent our beliefs about aleatoric uncertainty. Our work shows that explicitly accounting for aleatoric uncertainty significantly improves the performance of Bayesian neural networks. We note that many standard benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10, have essentially no aleatoric uncertainty. Moreover, we show that data augmentation in approximate inference softens the likelihood, leading to underconfidence and misrepresenting our beliefs about aleatoric uncertainty. Accordingly, we find that a cold posterior, tempered by a power greater than one, often more honestly reflects our beliefs about aleatoric uncertainty than no tempering --- providing an explicit link between data augmentation and cold posteriors. We further show that we can match or exceed the performance of posterior tempering by using a Dirichlet observation model, where we explicitly control the level of aleatoric uncertainty, without any need for tempering. 

Deep neural networks are susceptible to shortcut learning, using simple features to achieve low training loss without discovering essential semantic structure. Contrary to prior belief, we show that generative models alone are not sufficient to prevent shortcut learning, despite an incentive to recover a more comprehensive representation of the data than discriminative approaches. However, we observe that shortcuts are preferentially encoded with minimal information, a fact that generative models can exploit to mitigate shortcut learning. In particular, we propose Chroma-VAE, a two-pronged approach where a VAE classifier is initially trained to isolate the shortcut in a small latent subspace, allowing a secondary classifier to be trained on the complementary, shortcut-free latent subspace. In addition to demonstrating the efficacy of Chroma-VAE on benchmark and real-world shortcut learning tasks, our work highlights the potential for manipulating the latent space of generative classifiers to isolate or interpret specific correlations. 

While there has been progress in developing non-vacuous generalization bounds for deep neural networks, these bounds tend to be uninformative about why deep learning works. In this paper, we develop a compression approach based on quantizing neural network parameters in a linear subspace, profoundly improving on previous results to provide state-of-the-art generalization bounds on a variety of tasks, including transfer learning. We use these tight bounds to better understand the role of model size, equivariance, and the implicit biases of optimization, for generalization in deep learning. Notably, we find large models can be compressed to a much greater extent than previously known, encapsulating Occam’s razor. 

A broad class of stochastic volatility models are defined by systems of stochastic differential equations, and while these models have seen widespread success in domains such as finance and statistical climatology, they typically lack an ability to condition on historical data to produce a true posterior distribution. To address this fundamental limitation, we show how to re-cast a class of stochastic volatility models as a hierarchical Gaussian process (GP) model with specialized covariance functions. This GP model retains the inductive biases of the stochastic volatility model while providing the posterior predictive distribution given by GP inference. Within this framework, we take inspiration from well studied domains to introduce a new class of models, Volt and Magpie, that significantly outperform baselines in stock and wind speed forecasting, and naturally extend to the multitask setting. 

While low-precision optimization has been widely used to accelerate deep learning, low-precision sampling remains largely unexplored. As a consequence, sampling is simply infeasible in many large-scale scenarios, despite providing remarkable benefits to generalization and uncertainty estimation for neural networks. In this paper, we provide the first study of low-precision Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD), showing that its costs can be significantly reduced without sacrificing performance, due to its intrinsic ability to handle system noise. We prove that the convergence of low-precision SGLD with full-precision gradient accumulators is less affected by the quantization error than its SGD counterpart in the strongly convex setting. To further enable low-precision gradient accumulators, we develop a new quantization function for SGLD that preserves the variance in each update step. We demonstrate that low-precision SGLD achieves comparable performance to full-precision SGLD with only 8 bits on a variety of deep learning tasks. 

Low-precision arithmetic has had a transformative effect on the training of neural networks, reducing computation, memory and energy requirements. However, despite its promise, low-precision arithmetic has received little attention for Gaussian processes (GPs), largely because GPs require sophisticated linear algebra routines that are unstable in low-precision. We study the different failure modes that can occur when training GPs in half precision. To circumvent these failure modes, we propose a multi-faceted approach involving conjugate gradients with re-orthogonalization, mixed precision, and preconditioning. Our approach significantly improves the numerical stability and practical performance of conjugate gradients in low- precision over a wide range of settings, enabling GPs to train on 1.8 million data points in 10 hours on a single GPU, without any sparse approximations. 

Neural network classifiers can largely rely on simple spurious features, such as backgrounds, to make predictions. However, even in these cases, we show that they still often learn core features associated with the desired attributes of the data, contrary to recent findings. Inspired by this insight, we demonstrate that simple last layer retraining can match or outperform state-of-the-art approaches on spurious correlation benchmarks, but with profoundly lower complexity and computational expenses. Moreover, we show that last layer retraining on large ImageNet-trained models can also significantly reduce reliance on background and texture information, improving robustness to covariate shift, after only minutes of training on a single GPU. 

Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) is a gold standard for query-efficient continuous optimization. However, its adoption for drug design has been hindered by the discrete, high-dimensional nature of the decision variables. We develop a new approach (LaMBO) which jointly trains a denoising autoencoder with a discriminative multi-task Gaussian process head, allowing gradient-based optimization of multi-objective acquisition functions in the latent space of the autoencoder. These acquisition functions allow LaMBO to balance the explore-exploit tradeoff over multiple design rounds, and to balance objective tradeoffs by optimizing sequences at many different points on the Pareto frontier. We evaluate LaMBO on two small-molecule design tasks, and introduce new tasks optimizing \emph{in silico} and \emph{in vitro} properties of large-molecule fluorescent proteins. In our experiments LaMBO outperforms genetic optimizers and does not require a large pretraining corpus, demonstrating that BayesOpt is practical and effective for biological sequence design. 

The information content of crystalline materials becomes astronomical when collective electronic behavior and their fluctuations are taken into account. In the past decade, improvements in source brightness and detector technology at modern X-ray facilities have allowed a dramatically increased fraction of this information to be captured. Now, the primary challenge is to understand and discover scientific principles from big datasets when a comprehensive analysis is beyond human reach. We report the development of an unsupervised machine learning approach, X-ray diffraction (XRD) temperature clustering (X-TEC), that can automatically extract charge density wave order parameters and detect intraunit cell ordering and its fluctuations from a series of high-volume X-ray diffraction measurements taken at multiple temperatures. We benchmark X-TEC with diffraction data on a quasi-skutterudite family of materials, (Ca x Sr 1 − x ) 3 Rh 4 Sn 13 , where a quantum critical point is observed as a function of Ca concentration. We apply X-TEC to XRD data on the pyrochlore metal, Cd 2 Re 2 O 7 , to investigate its two much-debated structural phase transitions and uncover the Goldstone mode accompanying them. We demonstrate how unprecedented atomic-scale knowledge can be gained when human researchers connect the X-TEC results to physical principles. Specifically, we extract from the X-TEC–revealed selection rules that the Cd and Re displacements are approximately equal in amplitude but out of phase. This discovery reveals a previously unknown involvement of 5 d 2 Re, supporting the idea of an electronic origin to the structural order. Our approach can radically transform XRD experiments by allowing in operando data analysis and enabling researchers to refine experiments by discovering interesting regions of phase space on the fly.